I Think, we need to be a little worried about the future of our Agriculture..
I believe we need to take a much closer look at the state of agriculture in Indonesia. Yes, you heard that right — there’s a real issue here that we’ve noticed but haven’t addressed with the urgency it deserves.
I’m genuinely concerned that this could lead to a crisis, especially as Indonesia strives to achieve food self-sufficiency and aims to become a global food supplier.
Why is this a concern?
Based on my research and nearly a year of hands-on experience in the agriculture sector, I see two critical issues:
- Farmer Regeneration
- Productivity and Land Availability
1. Farmer Regeneration
The challenge of farmer regeneration becomes painfully clear when you work closely with farmers. For example, while collaborating with Kitani on a project to boost shallot productivity in Nganjuk, I saw a huge age gap between younger and older farmers. It’s shocking, but we consider a “young” farmer to be between 35 and 40 years old, and it’s rare to find farmers under 35.
Data from Indonesia’s 2023 Agricultural Census (BPS Indonesia) shows a concerning decline in young people entering farming. Instead, older farmers, particularly those over 55, are increasingly working their own land. Back in 2013, around 14.25 million farmers owned the land they cultivated; by 2023, that number had risen to 16.89 million.
In the last decade, BPS data indicates that the proportion of farmers aged 25–34 dropped by 1.73%, and those aged 35–44 decreased by 4.34%. Meanwhile, farmers aged 55–64 rose by 3.29%, and those over 65 also increased. According to the Presidential Staff Office (KSP.go.id), over 70% of Indonesian farmers are now over 43, meaning younger generations make up only about 30%.
Government reports suggest several reasons for this trend: low income, lack of social prestige, high risks, and high entry costs associated with a farming career. Rice farming, in particular, is among the least profitable crops for Indonesian farmers. Many say that growing rice barely covers operational costs, and sometimes doesn’t even break even.
In other words, relying solely on rice is not economically viable — especially as the cost of living continues to rise. Farmers have to diversify into higher-value crops like melons or shallots, but these require significant initial investments, making it financially risky and difficult to enter.
Low income, combined with high operational costs, discourages young people from becoming farmers. Meanwhile, buyers live in a very different reality. In my own conversations with rice buyers, I’ve noticed a big lifestyle gap between them and the farmers.
Near my parents’ home, for example, buyers who purchase directly from farmers live comfortably, with large, well-kept houses.
In contrast, farmers struggle to make ends meet due to low market prices that don’t allow them to earn a fair income from their rice.
If we don’t address this issue soon, the future looks bad. Indonesia’s food needs are growing rapidly, and some articles even predict a huge increase in food demand by 2030.
2. Land Availability
As housing demand rises in Indonesia, more land is being converted from agricultural to residential or other types of development.
While infrastructure development has its benefits, from an agricultural perspective, it’s alarming. Productive farmland is shrinking, which could have serious consequences for our agricultural productivity. If this continues, it will become harder and harder to meet domestic food demands, making the goal of food self-sufficiency even more difficult.
A study by Sandy Setya Azzuri, published in 2024 in the Journal of Development Economic Issues, highlights this ongoing decline in agricultural land. For instance, rice fields dropped from 8 million hectares in 2009 to 7.4 million hectares in 2019, and the trend of conversion shows no signs of slowing down.
If this trend continues, it could hit Indonesia’s economy hard, as agriculture is still a vital part of our GDP. In 2023, agriculture, forestry, and fishing contributed around 12.5% to Indonesia’s GDP.
Indonesia faces both opportunities and challenges in expanding its agricultural land. Of the country’s 29.8 million hectares of idle land, only about 7.9 million hectares are suitable for agriculture.
To achieve food self-sufficiency and become a global food supplier by 2045, we’ll need approximately 5.3 million hectares for staple crops like rice, shallots, and sugarcane, and another 10.3 million hectares for other essential crops.
The government’s main strategies focus on intensifying the use of existing agricultural land and implementing strict controls on further land conversion.
But high rates of conversion, especially in Java, create significant challenges for preserving and expanding agricultural areas, threatening long-term food security.
Another challenge is productivity. Climate change and unpredictable weather increase the risk of crop failure, making it harder for farmers to earn a stable income. They can no longer rely on traditional methods or old planting calendars because weather patterns have shifted, adding even more uncertainty to the agricultural sector.
Problem Statement
So, here’s the big question:
- How might we enhance agricultural intensification efforts to meet Indonesia’s food self-sufficiency and global food supplier goals by 2045?
This broad issue can be broken down into smaller, specific challenges to ensure food security and stability for Indonesia’s future.
I believe the government and private companies need to dig deeper and conduct more research on this issue. This article isn’t a full research report — it’s more of a wake-up call.
Don’t take this as your primary source; instead, consider it a prompt to dive deeper. Because I only write based on my observation using my worm eye and a do a little literature review and look for external data on the database.
Use this as a starting point, alongside other resources, to build a well-rounded understanding before undertaking serious research.
So….
I’ll leave you with a little reminder, like in the Snickers ad: “You’re not you when you’re hungry.” Food is vital, but we sometimes forget that it doesn’t just appear on our plates. It has to be cultivated first.
If the roots of our food system start to disappear and food becomes scarce, Indonesia could face chaos, becoming dependent on imports and watching its economic independence shrink.
